Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Junior and Seattle

Ken Griffey Jr. has been rumored to be traded for a while now, and the rumors of him returning to Seattle are heating up.

Personally, I've always like Griffey, as a player and as a person. He was a termendous player who would likely be chasing down Barry Bonds right now if it weren't for all of his injuries. Not to say that he was or is injury prone by any means, but when you break your wrist jumping in to a wall to make a catch, that shows who much you're willing to wisk for your team. That's the type of player Griffey was with Seattle and will always be.

Back to the trade rumors. The money could become an issue at one point. Jr. is owed $12.5M for this year, and has a $16.5M option for 2009 with a $4M buyout, which makes his option worth $12.5M (in a theory that I don't feel like explaining right now). The M's are throwing $16-something-M at Richie Sexson this year, I'm sure that they would spend that on one of the franchise's greatest players. Richie Sexson's contract comes off of the books, and Raul Ibanez and Jose Vidro will become free agents, although Vidro has a vesting option, giving the Mariners two places where Griffey could play easily. Or switch Wlad in to left and insert Griffey in to right.

What it's going to take to get Griffey over here is the biggest question. Would the Mariners give up Wladimir Balentien or Jeff Clement? I don't know. The Mariners would probably be hard pressed to part with their top prospects. Other than those two, guys like Phillipe Amount and Carlos Truinfel come to mind. Cha Seung Baek and Jeremy Reed apear to be extra parts, and are still young and have some potential, so maybe Baek, Reed and another high-ish level prospect would get the job done?

Would there be any liklihood of the Mariners sending Richie Sexson or Jose Vidro over to the Reds in a potential deal?


Anonymous said...

The Reds have no use for Sexson and Vidro with Votto at first. Aumont would probably be very desirable to the Reds as they have a lack of high end left handed pitching prospects compared to righties. I don't know how he is doing this season but perhaps Aumont, Reed and Rob Johnson?

Anonymous said...

You are COMPLETELY out of your mind if you think Seattle would EVER trade Triunfel or even Aumont for Griffey. Triunfel is Seattle's #1 prospect and Aumont is there #2 pitcher. This post is absolutely ridiculous.

Anonymous said...

I think a Jr. for Clement deal is realistic with Kenji Johjima in Seattle. As a Reds fan I would be very happy with this :)

Anonymous said...

the person that wrote this has no idea what they're talking about.

Tyler C said...

Anonymous 1: I know that Votto is ready to play first, and will be very good at it. As I Mariners fan I personally would love to see Vidro or Sexson dealt for almost anything. I said 'would' not 'the Reds should' or anything like that. Barely even speculation. The fact that their names are on that post IS speculation.

Anonymous 2: I don't want to see Truinfel or Amount traded. Period. The M's have already lost a lot in their pitching depth from the Erik Bedard trade. I'm thinking in terms of what would the Reds want. If the M's truly want Jr. to retire in a Mariners uniform, than they just might pay the price. Bavasi has no problem with wasting young talent, not that Griffey's a waste by any means, but knowing Bavasi, he would probably give up top prospects for again veterans.

Anonymous 3: I agree with what you aer saying. Perfect sense for both teams. The Reds would certainly like to have Clement. And the Mariners would too.

Anonymous 4: Obviously I have some sanity in this post if Cork Gaines picked it out. If you are saying that I'm insane, then you are saying that he is insane.

This post was pretty much just pure speculation. I was just throwing some names out there that could enter trade talks if the M's decide to go that route. I like the idea of trading Rob Johnson, because behind Jeff Clement and Joh he is stuck in AAA.

Thank you MLBTR for the mention!! Keep up the great work.

Anonymous said...

If the Orioles couldn't get Clement included for one of the best starters in the game that still had 2 years of team control why would the Reds all of a sudden get Clement or any other top prospect for a free agent to be 38 year old Griffey?

I don't see the M's killing the farm system anymore after what they gave up for Bedard.

Sorry, but I see a Rob Johnson or Adam Moore, plus a Justin Thomas and another like arm.

Anonymous said...

I also see mid-level prospects going for Griffey if a trade is even made. The Reds literally have no pull in the trade department since Griffey has a full no trade clause, and is a free agent at the end of the year unless the Reds pick up that huge option, actually if the keep Griffey it still costs them $4 mil to buy him out, and they won't get any comp picks cause they won't offer him arbitration.

No sense for Seattle to give up anything good for Griffey since they could just wait 4 months and get him for nothing but a new contract.

Seriously If I were the Reds I would be happy to even get Johnson, and 1 extra prospect like a Thomas.

Jeff said...

As a Reds fan, I think all of us would love to get a catcher prospect to get rid of the glut we currently have. clement for Griff straight up.

Tyler C said...

I agree with most of what's said. But in the Bedard deal look what the O's did get:

Blue Chipper Adam Jones
LOOGY Sherrill
3 high end pitching prospects

Clement replacing almost anyone in the deal would tip it to the O's even more. The Adam Moore's and Rob Johnson's of the world are now coming to mind - I wrote this post just flat out, limited research and didn't really asses what the Mariners would give up. Johnson or Moore would make perfect sense to trade.

Waiting for Griffey to be a free agent would also be a worthy thing to do. Why spend anymore prospects when your supply is running out?

I'd think that the Reds wouldn't be that happy with Johnson and another prospect, but now that I've enlightened myself with help from some Reds fans who know Jr. more than I do, I realize that Jr. probably isn't going to cost a ton, but shouldn't come too cheap

Tyler C said...

Clement for Jr. straight up? Makes perfect sense.

As I Mariner fan I'd hate to see the M's lose another top prospect, but I'd like to see one of the greatest retire as a Mariner.

Anonymous said...

Wow, what a goof! MLBTR you guys are great but you goofed on this one. Pretty sure the Clement for Griffey was a Joke by the Reds fan. Trade top prospect in the org, 3rd pick overall, for soon to be retired guy. That's pretty funny.

Anonymous said...

I would love to see Griffey back in Seattle too, but Clement is too pricey!!

cincikid said...

I think that the Reds would definitely ask for at least Clement. Because, if they do let him walk, he is a Type A Free Agent that would bring the Reds a 1st Round Comp pick in next years draft. And the M's would be wise to give Clement for reasons: 1) They obvious, do not have plans for him as their #1 Catcher. 2) Have Kenji. 3) Would have to play the bidding war for Griff this off season. You know how the Yanks and Tigers love those aging powerhitting OFers. 4) The M's need him the most. Talk about selling more season tickets, hotdogs, and Griff returns jerseys! Please? M's owner would be nuts not to only give up Clement for the meal ticket that is Griffey back in Seattle. 5)Think of those bobbleheads!

Anonymous said...

Griffey may be a type A free agent and that's not even a guarantee, but the Reds would have to first pay the $4 million buy out option then offer arbitration.

I doubt they would do so, which means no draft picks.

Still wouldn't make sense for any team to give up much in terms of players, not just prospects, for a player who brings more sentimentality than productivity.

I could understand a Clement deal, but that would have to mean Griffey would be the sole catalyst in reviving the M's offense and winning the World Series. Mainly because the M's are giving up their best LEFTY prospect power bat in Clement for a rapidly aging, DH type of super expensive free agent.

Maybe Bavasi is that dumb to give anything more than a Johnson or Moore, but if I were the M's, it wouldn't make sense at all to give up anymore than 1 mid level prospect for someone the M's could get for free in a couple of months.

It also makes absolutely no sense to give up their best LEFT handed power prospect for another LEFT handed bat that has less projectability due to regression caused by age and injuries.

Anonymous said...

Tyler - you are looking like a homer mariner fan if you think Griffey is still worth trading top talent for. this isn't 1995.

and quit acting like cork gaines is god. he's just another blogger.

i looked around at some of your other stuff and i think you need to take a step back and learn about baseball before you act like you know what youre doing.

cincikid said...

Sure you say that he is no longer in his prime. I'd agree. But he isn't really playing like a old man on his last leg either. He still has a .300+OBP, He still has the power to hit 30+ HR. Plays a average to above avg. RF. If he was used as a DH he could play at least till he was 45. I wouldn't be surprised if Reds new GM Jocketty would throw in a mid level prospects and some cash for good measure. The Reds are needing and wanting a good catcher bad.

Snave said...

I think trading anyone who is more than a mid-level prospect for Griffey is seriously insane. I agree with those posting as "anonymous" who said things like "Sorry, but I see a Rob Johnson or Adam Moore, plus a Justin Thomas and another like arm."

I think all Griffey would really do for the Mariners would be to put some people in the stands, and that might just be short-term. Given his age and his injury history from recent years, I am not sure acquiring Griffey would amount to much more than a public relations stunt by the Mariners front office.

Sure, I would love to have him back in Seattle! But not at the price of Triunfel, Aumont, Clement or Balentien. How about sending the Reds Miguel Cairo, Willie Bloomquist or Cha Seung Baek? That might be more like it! 8-)

Anonymous said...

Griffey with a sub .700 OPS and potential salary over $10 million a year is not worth much in terms of trade value, especially if you can get him for nothing within 4 months.

It doesn't matter what the Reds are needing, they have literally no pull in the trade department when it comes to trading Griffey. The M's can literally tell the Reds to take the deal or leave it and in 4 months they can sign Griffey while giving up nothing.

Seriously the M's need much more than just trading for Griffey to make this season go right and with the amount of holes they have going into next year, I don't think they are going to trade any of their prospects who could make a difference, especially with this weak free agent pool coming up.

Anonymous said...

You don't trade a 2007 Honda Accord EX for a 1995 Honda Accord EX with 200,000 miles on it but still gets you 25+mpg.

Tyler C said...

First off, I don't think that Cork Gaines is a 'god' by any stretch. I offered my thanks for him referencing my blog. Something that most normal people would probably do.

Cincikid proves for me that trading Clement wouldn't be that bad of an idea. Look at what happened with Rene Rivera. Good prospect who was wasted as a backup. Anyone know where he is know?

I'd love to see the M's send spare parts to the Reds, Cairo, Baek, Reed, but the reality is that probably won't get the job done. I DON"T WANT TO SEE THE MARINERS TRADE JEFF CLEMENT PERIOD, but what else can they do with him. He's developed in to a very fine young catcher who can hit. All the Mariners are doing is using him at DH. The don't want to make him a first baseman, and signed Joh to that extension. It almost seems like they're trying to give theirselves reasons to TRADE Clement. The Reds do need a catcher. That's obvious. Would they settle for Rob Johnson, Cha Seung Baek, and Miguel Cairo/Jeremy Reed? I don't know. The point is that it seems that most want to add a good veteran at the deadline, and will give up young talent in order to acquire him. Look at what the Rangers gave up for two months of Carlos Lee a couple years back.

Yes, Jr. is not in his prime, and I do know that it isn't 1995. If it was, Jr. would be getting injured making some spectacular catch. He would bring in some offence. Maybe more than Clement or Balentien at DH or RF. He is older, but wouldn't you have to think that maybe a return to Seattle could revitilize him somewhat? Going from a middle of the division to a playoff contender would be a huge boost in my opinion.

What's so bad with getting bums in the seats? Look at the last little while where the M's have struggled in get 20,000 or more. You bring Jr. back, you'll see that number jump to atleast 35,000 or more a game. meaning more food/beverage/souveniers that would be sold (theres one person out there trying to help me a little bits: thx cincikid)allowing the Mariners more money for whatever they plan to waste it on.

The M's are going for it this year and next. That's why they spent the farm for Erik Bedard. Wlad is showing power abilities in right field, but probably isn't ,mature enough as a baseball player to handle the pressure that will be there come September.

Blogging isn't my life. It's a hobby of mine. That might be why I might appear to be a 'homer mariner fan'. I don't spend three hours researching for each post. As I've mentioned, this post was just a spur of the moment thing. I'll probably lood more in detail at the possibilities for Seattle acquiring Griffey, but I basically just through this post out there, with my baseic knowledge, and no research.

As for me nedding to take I step back, I'm not too many, it any steps ahead. How far back can I really go?

Tyler C said...

The car analagy I like, but would you trade the newer one for the older one if the '95 was a collecter's edition?

Anonymous said...

Did you seriously just compare Jeff Clement to Rene Rivera? You just lost ALL of your credibility.

Tyler C said...

Thank you for taking what I said wayyyyyyy out of contex.

I said do you want to see Clement END UP LIKE Rivera. I didn't compare the two, I just asked if you would like to see Jeff Clement wasted.

How on earth would you think that I'd be comparing those two? Because I said that they were both good prospects? You never had any credibility in the first place.

Anonymous said...

The Mariners giving Joh a 3 year extension doesn't mean jack squat for what the M's plan for Clement. They've been on the record, and even at Joh's press conference as having said Clement is an integral part of the future and it was always his bat not his catching that was his ticket to the big leagues. They also said he will probably experience playing different positions soon.

The M's know Joh isn't getting younger and is logging a lot of innings. Matter of fact listen to Bavasi's post Joh extension conference interview on 950 KJR, he clearly states that Joh understands he's not guaranteed the catcher position with this contract. Bavasi makes it still sound like Clement is an untouchable.

I'm not against Griffey coming back, just doesn't make sense for the M's to move anything of value if their trying to win now and next year.

What's their biggest problem this year and next year? The offense. Sexson, Vidro and Ibanez are all free agents at the end of the year and all are aging closer to the end of their careers. That's 1 Corner OF spot, 1 DH, and 1 first baseman. All of which are positions of power. The M's farm system has nothing other than Wlad and Clement that can help now and next year. There is also no way the M's outbid for Tex in free agency.

So tell me how trading Clement for Griffey helps this team win this year and next year with his sub .700 OPS and suspect durability in terms of playing the OF?

Tyler C said...

If the Mariners wanted Jeff Clement to play a different position, why were they so against him learning 1B?

As I've said, I don't want to see Clement traded, but I still want to see Griffey here. Joh is only like 32 or 33, which is still fairly young. I get what your saying, and you make a lot of sense. What I'm trying to figure out though is why give a guy $24M garunteed, but not garuntee him a job. I hope that Clement is part of the future, but the M's are trying to win now. If they were that set on five years from now we'd have seen Felix and Bedard both extended long term, and we haven't yet.

The offense is still a problem with Ibanez, Sexson and Vidro. Wouldn't Griffey coming back earn them enough revenue to put towards a Mark Texeira? There are a lot of interesting free agents out there, and with those three leaving the M's will be taking about $30M off of the books. To be honest I don't really want to see $20M of that go to Tex if that's all that they have to spend.

Why is it that when I throw the idea out there of Clement for Jr., everyone shovels crap at me, but when the Mariners give up Adam Jones and more to get Erik Bedard, Bill Bavasi is the smartest man on earth?

Anonymous said...

"Why is it that when I throw the idea out there of Clement for Jr., everyone shovels crap at me, but when the Mariners give up Adam Jones and more to get Erik Bedard, Bill Bavasi is the smartest man on earth?"

Wow.. because the Erik Bedard trade brought in one of the best pitchers in the game for the cost of 2 top prospects and a replacable major leaguer with Mickolio as a throw-in. Clement for Griffey is trading your best prospect or best young player for someone who is going to retire within a couple of seasons and isn't producing currently. Clement for Griffey would be worse than any other trade Seattle has ever done.

Either you are not aware of Jeff Clement's potential or you're stuck in 1995 and think Griffey is still among the elite offensive producers.

Anonymous said...

^That said, I get the impression you were about 3 years old in 1995.

Anonymous said...

Nope, I disagreed and still disagree with the Bedard trade. In that same trade I've thought the same thing, why rob peter to pay paul. Bedard is good, but he's averaged 22 games started a year throughout his entire career and has eclipsed 200 innings 0 times in his entire life. Personally my stand was the M's had way more problems than just getting Bedard.

Next, $8 million a year for a position player like Johjima is actually not a huge committment at all, Washburn, Batista and Vidro, all make more now than Kenji will. Actually tons of bench players throughout the league make more than Kenji will.

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