Time to take another look at Richie Sexson. I didn't really have a prediction for Sexson, actually, looking back, it almost looks like I did my best to not make a prediction for him. We'll see by the end of this post I may have my own predictions for Sexson. Some stats from Spring Training for Big Richie.AVG G AB R H TB 2B 3B HR RBI
.208 8 24 2 5 9 1 0 1 3
The BA is terrible, but it is early, and the Mariners are still giving lots of AB's to the players battling for a job. If Sexson gets one home run every 25 AB's or so, and he gets around 500 this year, he'd have 20 HR's, so he's on pace for the same type of year as 2007. You might be able to factor in him not finding his swing yet, and hey, Ichiro hasn't really found it either. Ok, we use those two factors, and I'd say he gets a HR every 20 AB's. So in 500 AB's he'd have 25 HR's. Better, but he needs 30, so a HR every 16 AB's, would give him about 31 HR's, so we are looking better.
Sorry for the nerd paragraph there. Back to business. The point is that Sexson needs a good year, and mostly in the power perspective. Reiterating my words, if Sexson hits 35 HR's, nobody will care if he only puts up a .203 average. So far this Spring, Sexson hasn't proved anything more than his abilities in 2007, and he needs to be better. I will now make a prediction for Richie Sexson.
AVG HR RBI OBP SLG K BB
.231 33 102 .365 .465 134 63
We'll come back and look at this again in a little while.
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